🌐 Global Economy 1d ago · Menzie Chinn

Large Upside NFP Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators

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Large Upside NFP Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators
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May NFP growth at +172K outpaces +85K Bloomberg consensus (87K surprise vs. 53K Mean Absolute Revision goinng from 1st-3rd release in 2025), on top of upward revisions in April and March.


Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue b

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