Recession in Germany? Determination by Organization vs. by Prediction Market
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Consider Germany over the last five years:
Figure 1: German GDP (blue), and employment (red), both in logs, 2022Q3=0. Source: OECD via FRED, and author’s calculations.
For the period that GDP was declining, employment was rising, up to 2024Q4. As a consequence, neither the German Council of Economic Experts, nor (private sector firm) ECRI or nonprofit Conference Board have declared a German recession.
Interestingly, there is no active prediction market on Kalshi for a German recession. T
Figure 1: German GDP (blue), and employment (red), both in logs, 2022Q3=0. Source: OECD via FRED, and author’s calculations.
For the period that GDP was declining, employment was rising, up to 2024Q4. As a consequence, neither the German Council of Economic Experts, nor (private sector firm) ECRI or nonprofit Conference Board have declared a German recession.
Interestingly, there is no active prediction market on Kalshi for a German recession. T
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