Employment and Wages: Alternative Measures
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Nonfarm payroll employment upside surprise from CES. CPS indicates something less positive, as does ADP, trendwise.
Figure 1: Change in nonfarm payroll employment according to CES May release (bold black). April release (gray), CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, 3 month centered moving average (red), early benchmark (light greenn), and QCEW covered employment (blue), all in 000’s, s.a. QCEW series adjusted by author using X-13 over 2022-2026 period. Source: BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and au
Figure 1: Change in nonfarm payroll employment according to CES May release (bold black). April release (gray), CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, 3 month centered moving average (red), early benchmark (light greenn), and QCEW covered employment (blue), all in 000’s, s.a. QCEW series adjusted by author using X-13 over 2022-2026 period. Source: BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and au
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