🧩 Philosophy 2d ago · Ben S.

Forecasting is Not Overrated and It's Probably Funded Appropriately

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Forecasting is Not Overrated and It's Probably Funded Appropriately
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(A response to @mabramov post from a couple days ago: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WCutvyr9rr3cpF6hx/forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop-funding-it )TL;DR: I agree with Marcus that broadly, additional forecasting funding to the tune of tens (!?) of millions of dollars at this point would probably not yield a great return. However, I think the benefits of some forecasting funding have been tremendous. Whatever funding it initially took to help get platforms like Metaculus and Man

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