What Do You Mean by a Two-Year AGI Timeline?
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Until recently, I was a bit confused about what people meant when they talked about AGI[1] timelines. My hope in writing this short note is to help clarify things for anyone in a similar position.In casual conversation, people often say something like "I have a two-year AGI timeline", without defining what exactly "two years" means here. Implicitly, there is a probability distribution over when AGI will arrive. If you're anything like me, your first instinct was to assume they meant expected val
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