Econbrowser

Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employment. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blu

Last year I added cryptocurrencies and private credit to the coverage. What should I add this Fall? The erosion of exorbitant privilege: Insurance non-renewals due to climate change, from NYT:   as costs from climate change rise: Source: ClimateCentral accessed 8/17/2026. (Note: This data used to be provided by the US government pre-Trump 2.0). Asset bubble or boom? Source: Shiller.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no deal apparent, and we are moving the George Washington CSG away from the Pacific. Source: USNI, accessed 8/17/2026. So much for the pivot to the Pacific. The betting odds for reopening the Strait of Hormuz by year’s end is only 33%; it’s 8% for October’s beginning. Source: Kalshi, accessed 8/17/2026, noon CT. At the same time, Brent October futures remain elevated near $90, while gasoline futures near all-time levels in June. Source:

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier vesion in Project Syndicate.  August 17 – Observers of international monetary economics have shifted attention back to the exchange rates of Asian currencies.  The concern is that China’s yuan, Japan’s yen and Korea’s won are undervalued.  All three countries run trade and current account surplus

The collision of expansionary fiscal policy, slowing growth, and the erosion of policy credibility, particularly since 27 February 2026, suggests … up and high. Figure 1: TIPS 10 year (blue), DKW estimated short real rates next ten years (red), both in %.

from Politico today, Douglas Holtz-Eakin: “If the bright-line definition of socialism is owning the means of production, then yeah, [the president is] there,” Truer words were never spoken. Holtz-Eakin is head of American Action Forum, formerly director of the CBO, formerly professor at Syracuse University. Documentation, here.

Maybe: Figure 1: Imports of computers, computer accessories and semiconductors (blue, left log scale), and investment in informationn equipment and software (red, right log scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, 2026Q2 advance release, and author’s calculations. Over this period, one can reject at the 6% level the null hypothesis that the growth rate of imports doesn’t Granger cause the growth rate of investment, but not the reverse. Interestingly, once lagged imports do no

The August Survey of Professional Forecasters is out: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue), GDPNow of 8/14 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast of 8/14 (red triangle), GS tracking of 8/14 (purple +), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2026Q2 advance, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, GS, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

standardized measures: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

Instead of +0.1% increase, 0.6% drop. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), freight services index (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed [1], Philadelphia Fed [2]

From Milwaukee Courier, Natalie Yahr for Wisconsin Watch: “Concern about prices rising is not just prices rising, but it’s against the backdrop of how fast wages are rising. How many people are keeping up, and what components of the population are keeping up?” Chinn said. So…without ado: Figure 1: Average hourly wage in 2025$ using CPI-all urban (blue), using CPI for wage earners and clerical workers (red). Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

From CBO. Source: CBO. Notes: Solid light purple is FY2024, solid dark purple is FY2025, dashed black is FY2026 estimate for cumulative deficit. As of 2026Q2, we’re nearly a percentage point above full employment, according to CBO’s estimate of potential GDP. Shouldn’t the deficit be shrinking, rather than increasing, as a share of GDP?  

Including Everyday Price Index. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI: Figure 1: CPI (blue), CPI-wage earners and clerical workers (purple), chained CPI (green), AIER Everyday Price index (light red), all in logs 2025M01=0. 2025M08 CPI observation is Cleveland Fed nowcast of 8/12, EPI observation is forecast from first differences regression using CPI, GASREGW. Source: BLS, AIER, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.

CES estimates are for lackluster growth, while the trend in CPS measure is … somewhat worrying.  

+30K < +78K Bloomberg consensus.

Based on weekly releases, through 8/1.

+44K vs. +68K per Bloomberg consensus. Figure 1:  Change since 2025M03 in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), from ADP (red), 2023M04-2025M03 Stochastic trend (gray line), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED.

That’s the only way to think about it: We go from free navigation on the Strait of Hormuz on February 27 to de facto Iranian control on inbound shipping. From NYT: An arrangement with Iran to reopen the strait could come with a geopolitical cost for the United States. Iranian officials say they are designing the accord to ratify their capacity to control the strait and retain strategic leverage that they did not employ before the war. Officials familiar with the emerging proposal have sa

Big jumps in TIPS after “Liberation Day” and after the US-Iran war’s start. Figure 1: Change in TIPS yield for 5 year (blue), 10 year (red), 30 year (teal), since 2/17/2026, all in %. Source: Treasury and author’s calculations.  

I hear the term “socialist” bandied about a lot. As somebody who took a whole semester on the topic (titled, simply “Socialism”, by the late Adam Ulam), I would like to forward a very simple economic definition: Socialism is an economic system in which the means of production and distribution are owned or controlled collectively So, who’s a socialist? Consider this tabulation by the Cato Institute of Federal government ownership, and how it’s boomed under&#