Econbrowser

From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:   Kalshi betting odds on number of ships through Strait of Hormuz through April 5: Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/5/2026, 11:30 AM CT. Notes: Orange arrow at 4 AM CT, 5 AM ET. There is no indication that prediction markets took the threat seriously, and indeed the expected number of ships transiting the Strait declined.  

If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given the Administration’s internment and removals program, the current projection of population suggests not. I use a simple error correction model with (log) GDP as the left hand side variable, and GDP and population as an error correction term, estimated over the 1986Q4-2019Q4 ad 2021Q1-2025Q3 period (excluding the pandemic, and with data available to the Troika). I then use

Jet fuel price, from EIA via FRED: From IATA: From a year ago through March 30, gasoline price (regular) has risen 26.2%, 50.4% for diesel. For jet fuel (Louisiana), it’s risen 90.2%. Thanks, Drumpf!  

The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late. The economic forecast, based on data available in November, is out of line with other forecasts based on contemporaneously available data. And in fact, at 3.5%, 2026 q4/q4 was upped (!) from 3.2% in the Mid-Session Review. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), February CBO (blue), April Admin. (red square), March Survey of Professional Forecasters (brown), March FT-Booth (light blue triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Sour

ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment from BLS CES (blue, left log scale), from ADP (red, left log scale), in 000’s, s.a., total hours in manufacturing, production and nonsupervisory workers, in logs 2025M01=0 (teal, right scale), s.a. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.  

BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink),GDP (blue bar

From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today: Figure 1: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), March SPF median (brown), GDPNow (light blue square), Goldman Sachs (red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, log scale. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations. Since the series are plotted on a log scale, it’s clear that “core GDP” is decelerating, both relative to the 2023-24 trend,

Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index… NBER BCDC key measures: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment preliminary benchmark revision (thin blue), NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink),GDP (blue bars),  all log

Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast indicates 0.84% m/m increase in March, based on weekly gasoline and daily oil prices. Figure 1: Headline CPI (blue, left log scale), quarter-on-quarter annualized inflation, % (red, right scale). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 3/31, and author’s calculations. The nowcast for headline PCE m/m inflation is 0.61% (vs. 0.84% for headline CPI) It’s no wonder what’s driving the nowcast. On weekly data, the year-on-year growth rate of gasoline prices

Well, it’s a pretty integrated world market for oil…up to date data for front month futures: Notes: Brent (blue), WTI (green).  If Trump thinks the price of oil used by the US diverges on a long time basis from that of the world, then he’s just exhibiting his (lack of) knowledge of the world economy. I will say this characterization applies most strongly to US-Europe comparisons. East Asia which relies more on oil from the Mideast can have the relevant oil price move somewhat

The Conference Board’s Confidence Index at 91.8, up from downwardly revised 91.0 in February, beating Bloomberg consensus of 88. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations. The moderate uptick is surprising given the rise in gasoline prices (surv

Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics). The views presented are solely those of the author. A version of this article was posted at ARC blog. In less than a month, global oil prices surged past $100 per barrel following U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the North American crude benchmark, rose from around $65 and peaked around $116, while Brent, the global bench

The Conference Board estimate of consumer confidence comes out tomorrow. Here’s some guesses on how bad it’ll be. Figure 1: Reported Conference Board Confidence (bold black), nowcast (light blue square), +/- 1 std error (light blue +), Bloomberg consensus (red square). Source: Conference Board, author’s calculations. I used a 2022-26 regression of first differenced confidence on U.Mich sentiment, growth rate of gasoline price, and lagged confidence (adj-R2  = 0.28) to nowcast

Tyler Godspeed (former acting CEA Chair Trump 1.0; chief economist ExxonMobil) observes that shocks as determinants of recessions means they are essentially unpredictable. If you look back over not just the past 80 years, but indeed over the last three and a half centuries, energy is one of those sectors that has generated, or has been subject to, a lot of shocks that then permeate the rest of the economy. It’s not hard to see why, because energy is an input into a lot of other sectors, and it

From Barchart, 9:30pm CT:

From Yardeni:  

According to Politico, if you were wondering when the budget was coming out. The budget should have come out February 2nd. The Economic Report of the President is to be transmitted within 10 days of the budget. We’ll see. I’m pretty sure the Economic Forecast will be more OBE than typically the case. A comparison of the Mid-Session Review forecast vs. CBO, SPF is here.  

I see currently betting on US troops in Iran by April 30th at 70% (a high of 72% earlier today), with betting on maximum oil price in 2026 of $145/bbl.   While the introduction of ground troops, at the levels of the 31st MEU plus 1500 from the 82nd airborne, signals a land incursion of some sort, it’s unclear what the mission would be; hence, it would be unclear what would signal the end to such an incursion. Even the introduction of an additional 10,000 troops, as mentioned by Mr.

In case you were wondering: Source: worldgovernmentbonds.com, accessed 3/27/2026.

Central Banking news account from the conference The ECB and Its Watchers, on Wednesday: Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn, UBS chief economist Tao Wang and economics professor Menzie Chinn discussed the changing global environment. The Bank of Finland governor focused on Europe, which in his view is would face “asymmetric” effects from the war in the Middle East due to its energy dependency. Wang said China’s considerable energy buffers would shield it from the effects of the conflict. Chinn