Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
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Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$:
Figure 1: Average hourly wage in CPI deflated 2025$ (bold black), Using Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray), using Bloomberg consensus (light blue ), all on log scale. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 4/7, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
It all looks a lot worse if one uses the AIER’s “Everyday Price Index”.
Figure 2: AIER Everday Price Index (bold black), estimated using first differenced headline CPI, Cleveland Fed nowcast,
Figure 1: Average hourly wage in CPI deflated 2025$ (bold black), Using Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray), using Bloomberg consensus (light blue ), all on log scale. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 4/7, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
It all looks a lot worse if one uses the AIER’s “Everyday Price Index”.
Figure 2: AIER Everday Price Index (bold black), estimated using first differenced headline CPI, Cleveland Fed nowcast,
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