Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
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The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock.
However, I expect a more fulsome explanation for why the Administration forecast deviated from roughly contemporaneously finalized forecasts, as shown below.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. 2026/Nov. 2025 (red square), November 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters (brown), IMF October WEO (teal triangle), all in bn.Ch
However, I expect a more fulsome explanation for why the Administration forecast deviated from roughly contemporaneously finalized forecasts, as shown below.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. 2026/Nov. 2025 (red square), November 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters (brown), IMF October WEO (teal triangle), all in bn.Ch
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