Is predicting AI behaviour a neglected AI safety agenda?
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TL;DR: While the AI safety community is interested in forecasting, it does not tend to systematically compare how effective different researchers, models, or theories are at predicting AI behaviour. I suggest the latter might be neglected, and propose a platform that could help fill the gap. I believe its most valuable use would be as a test bed for theories of how AI works, showing which ones predict well and in what contexts.In February 2025, Owain Evans’ group published Emergent Misalignment,
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