Are RCTs underpowered?
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We study the statistical credibility of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development economics and the optimal allocation of resources to replication. Using 745 principal-hypothesis tests from 190 articles in leading economics journals, we find that actual t-statistics peak well below the theoretical benchmark of 2.8 expected under 80 percent power, though above values associated with p-hacking. This suggests many RCTs are underpowered. Estimating an empirical Bayes mixture model
We study the statistical credibility of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in development economics and the optimal allocation of resources to replication. Using 745 principal-hypothesis tests from 190 articles in leading economics journals, we find that actual t-statistics peak well below the theoretical benchmark of 2.8 expected under 80 percent power, though above values associated with p-hacking. This suggests many RCTs are underpowered. Estimating an empirical Bayes mixture model
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