“Prediction” Markets Were Comically Wrong About the Brazilian Election
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Down in Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff election on Sunday to be re-elected as president, in a comeback that literally defied the odds — at least as they’d been set by buzzy prediction markets.
Though platforms like Polymarket frame themselves as prognosticators of the future by drawing on the “wisdom of the crowd,” they were horrendously off the mark when it came to Brazil’s extremely consequential election.
After the f
Though platforms like Polymarket frame themselves as prognosticators of the future by drawing on the “wisdom of the crowd,” they were horrendously off the mark when it came to Brazil’s extremely consequential election.
After the f
Also reported by 3 other outlets
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