Headline CPI Inflation at Consensus, Real Wages Continue to Be Eroded
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Everyday prices nowcasted to outstripping measured CPI and subindices:
Figure 1: CPI-all urban (bold black), CPI wage earners and clerical (green), CPI ex-shelter (purple), CPI chained (red), PCE deflator (chartreuse), AIER Everday Price Index (pink), all 2025M01=1.0, on log scale. Chained CPI is n.s.a. April AIER EPI is nowcasted using CPI and gasoline price changes. May PCE deflator is nowcasted as of 6/10. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, AIER, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
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Figure 1: CPI-all urban (bold black), CPI wage earners and clerical (green), CPI ex-shelter (purple), CPI chained (red), PCE deflator (chartreuse), AIER Everday Price Index (pink), all 2025M01=1.0, on log scale. Chained CPI is n.s.a. April AIER EPI is nowcasted using CPI and gasoline price changes. May PCE deflator is nowcasted as of 6/10. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, AIER, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Interestin
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