🌐 Global Economy 23h ago · Menzie Chinn

Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident, Consensus ADP

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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident, Consensus ADP
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Coincident continues to rise through May, while Bloomberg consensus for NFP growth is for +114K, roughly same growth rate as in May:

Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), ADP private nonfarm payroll employment (light green), Bloomberg consensus of 6/29 (light green +), real retail sales, CPI deflated (black), freight services indexes (brown), and coincident index in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all

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