Slowdown in Australia
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Given positive Q1 GDP growth (albeit with downside surprise of 0.3% vs 0.5% q/q Bloomberg consensus, vs. 0.4% Melbourne Institute nowcast), there’s been a substantial amount of commentary regarding elevated recession risks [1] [2]. I find this surprising as the IMF’s April WEO projected 2% y/y growth for 2026 — of course conditional on a baseline that assumed eventually decreasing oil prices. On June 3, OECD projected 1.9%, while the latest Economist Intelligence Unit forecast
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