Consumer Vibes Two Months into the War
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Gallup and U.Michigan way down, Conference Board trending sideways.
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, NBER, and author’s calculations.
In order to summarize the movements, I calculate the first principal componen
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, NBER, and author’s calculations.
In order to summarize the movements, I calculate the first principal componen
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