Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
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Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized):
Figure 1: GDP (blue bars), SPGMI monthly GDP (red), Brave-Butters-Kelley index (blue), Coincident Index (green), all in logs 2024M01=0. Source: BEA 2026Q1 advance, SPGMI; Kelley School, annd Philadelphia Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Figure 1: GDP (blue bars), SPGMI monthly GDP (red), Brave-Butters-Kelley index (blue), Coincident Index (green), all in logs 2024M01=0. Source: BEA 2026Q1 advance, SPGMI; Kelley School, annd Philadelphia Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.
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