How much should the ideal person cry wolf?
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It is a fact about wolves and rationality that you should warn people about wolves quite a few times for every effective wolf attack.
In particular, there is an asymmetry between the costs of having one’s flock devoured and averting a non-eventuating wolf attack. If the carnage is a hundred times worse, then it’s worth up to ninety-nine false alarms to stop it.
The original fable was about a boy who would continually lie about wolves, and that is definitely poor form.
But in modern parlance,
In particular, there is an asymmetry between the costs of having one’s flock devoured and averting a non-eventuating wolf attack. If the carnage is a hundred times worse, then it’s worth up to ninety-nine false alarms to stop it.
The original fable was about a boy who would continually lie about wolves, and that is definitely poor form.
But in modern parlance,
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