Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
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With the recent drop in odds for Strait of Hormuz re-opening, time to examine how credible Mr. Trump’s remarks are being taken. To me, with odds back to below pre-cease fire rates, it seems to me punters should be a little less credulous, In other words, given Mr. Trump’s penchant for overstatement, why do we see these gyrations?
Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/18/2026 10:30AM CT.
Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/18/2026 10:30AM CT.
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