10% ≈ 90%
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My intuition about probability doesn't match the linear distances between percentage points.With some percentages, 51% and 49% makes all the difference, such as in company ownership and voting.But with other percentages, 15% and 30% point estimates of timeline prediction make me wish to have a "plus or minus Knightian uncertainty" emoji, screaming in ignorance "that's basically the same number, no?!?".. the feeling is similar to my reaction when I first learned 0.1 and 1/10 are two different num
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