Given Projected Population, Is the Administration’s Forecast Plausible?
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If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given the Administration’s internment and removals program, the current projection of population suggests not.
I use a simple error correction model with (log) GDP as the left hand side variable, and GDP and population as an error correction term, estimated over the 1986Q4-2019Q4 ad 2021Q1-2025Q3 period (excluding the pandemic, and with data available to the Troika). I then use
I use a simple error correction model with (log) GDP as the left hand side variable, and GDP and population as an error correction term, estimated over the 1986Q4-2019Q4 ad 2021Q1-2025Q3 period (excluding the pandemic, and with data available to the Troika). I then use
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