Project Syndicate

As the world confronts the twin crises of democratic backsliding and climate change, a new sense of possibility has emerged from tragedy. US President Donald Trump has shown that the person holding political power does, in fact, matter, while the senseless war in the Middle East has renewed hope for completing the energy transition.

The sustained US-Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure have left the country’s legal system without functional enforcement mechanisms. Regardless of whether the Islamic Republic collapses or endures, the country is likely to face a prolonged period of instability.

The “asymmetric cost” model—a war the US starts will ultimately cost the other side far more—has proven vital to sustain the illusion of American invincibility and to limit domestic political resistance to US military adventurism. Now, Iran has broken it.

Although the Trump administration is rightly rethinking the heavy-handed banking measures implemented after the 2008 financial crisis, it is also slashing staff at key regulatory agencies, reducing capital requirements, and pushing through other changes. No matter how you slice it, the odds of a bad ending have risen.

One need only look past the moral and strategic differences between Iran and Ukraine to see that both are facing similar situations. Both have been attacked by larger powers whose institutional decline has produced regimes that failed to anticipate what they were setting into motion.

The clean-energy transition is often framed as a way to escape the strategic chokepoints and maritime vulnerabilities that have long defined the fossil-fuel industry. But a system built on renewables introduces new risks, as critical bottlenecks shift to refining, processing, and mineral-supply chains.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suffered a rare legislative setback in March, one of several early signs that support for her and her predecessor’s political project may be softening. The narrative that Mexico could bend its democratic rules without weakening its economic foundations is now beginning to unravel.

Renewable energy is the only way that African economies can escape permanent dependence on foreign imported fuels, currencies, external creditors, and the disastrous effects of wars in other parts of the world. More than a climate measure, it is the foundation for sovereignty and long-term economic stability.

Anthropic’s clash with the Trump administration has exposed the extent to which governments have abdicated their responsibility over AI governance. To prevent powerful technologies from being shaped solely by corporate profit incentives, democracies must establish the institutions needed to oversee them.

With the Persian Gulf in flames, de-escalation of the cold war between the United States and China must become the world’s top priority. To that end, it is essential to explode a powerful myth: the idea that China has cheated its way to prosperity.

Despite ongoing debates about Sino-American decoupling, the global economy remains as integrated as ever. Whenever either superpower tries to restrict ties with the other, it accelerates a broader process of adaptation and adjustment that is making the system more resilient and harder to control unilaterally.

For the past decade, Donald Trump has promised to put America first by keeping the country out of any more costly “forever wars”—a message that has carried him to the US presidency twice. Yet now the man who was only recently demanding a Nobel Peace Prize has emerged as a world-class warmonger.

In 2021-22, the European Central Bank failed to pay sufficient heed to mounting inflationary pressures, leading to a delayed response that made matters much worse. While today’s energy-price shock remains less acute than the one caused by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the ECB appears committed to a more proactive response.

At a time of intensifying geopolitical volatility, China’s embrace of a consumption-led model is not only about rebalancing growth, but also about anchoring it more firmly at home. Domestic demand offers insulation from external shocks, and along with developed capital markets, it can go a long way toward strengthening autonomy.

As confidence in the United States has eroded, allies have begun to hedge their bets by not automatically aligning themselves with America in the face of new crises. The US-Israeli war on Iran has thrown this dynamic into sharp relief, revealing a fundamental new constraint on American power.

The United States is fighting Iran—a state that built institutional continuity into its founding architecture—with strategic assumptions borrowed from more personalistic regimes, where decapitation can work. Ironically, under President Donald Trump, the US is reshaping its own political system in that direction.

In the space of just a few weeks, Cuba’s external energy supply and main sources of foreign earnings have been cut off. With economic conditions rapidly deteriorating and many industries grinding to a halt, social unrest is mounting, posing a potential threat to the island’s governability.

Many commentators have tried to divine a policy justification for the US war in Iran. But the simple explanation is that US President Donald Trump and US Secretary of “War” (Defense) Pete Hegseth attacked the Islamic Republic because they could, and because they take pleasure in killing or dominating other people.

While the ongoing US oil blockade has exacerbated Cuba’s economic and humanitarian crisis, the primary responsibility for its current predicament lies with the communist regime. If Cubans use this crisis as an opportunity to pursue ambitious economic and political reforms, they may yet restore the prosperity they once knew.

While a world where power trumps principle is hostile to small states, it is also bad for great powers. The challenges that will shape our future do not respect borders or recognize spheres of influence, and they can be contained only through binding agreements and institutionalized cooperation.