Jamestown Foundation

Executive Summary: The expansion of Russia’s Federal Protective Service’s (FSO) central apparatus by 12 percent since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine points to growing concern in the Kremlin over Putin’s personal security. The repeated expansion of the president’s security apparatus reflects the regime’s growing distrust of other security structures and its perception of internal risks as real. This is turning the FSO into Putin’s personal “guard” and one of the cente

Executive Summary: Russia’s September 18–20 State Duma elections have been described by some Russian commentators as a “special electoral operation,” echoing the Kremlin’s term for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The phrase references the elections’ tightly managed nature and their role in fabricating public support for Putin’s war. The Kremlin framing the elections as a referendum on its war while denying economic issues during the campaign may bring the regime’s legitimacy into ques

Executive Summary: Artificial intelligence (AI) is a core pillar of “comprehensive national power” in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), where senior officials frame the necessity of leadership in AI development as crucial for gaining an advantage in great power competition. Beijing is increasingly concerned about AI-related risks. Its calls for a global AI governance framework, however, are less about managing risks than about building non-Western influence in the AI domain. A rece

Executive Summary: Satellite imagery in August showed the Russian military building pontoon crossings and roads around Henichesk and Chongar, two critical land-logistics sites connecting occupied southern Ukraine with Crimea. The Kremlin has incorporated industrial assets in occupied Ukraine into its military-industrial system, repurposing factories and other enterprises for military production and ammunition storage. Moscow has expanded military repair capacity in occupied Ukraine, mo

Executive Summary: Ukrainian strikes that damage Russian energy facilities in the Arctic could disrupt Moscow’s growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and eliminate one of Russia’s last safe harbors for energy export. After Kyiv’s strike campaign against Russian oil and gas facilities in the country’s west and against major export facilities on the Baltic and Black Seas, Russia’s nascent network of valuable LNG and oil production sites on the G

Executive Summary: Chișinău’s imposition of new rules on elections, local government, and language in its Gagauz Autonomy is generating a political crisis that extends far beyond the borders of that 100,000-strong Christian Turkic republic along the Ukrainian border in Moldova. In addition to Gagauz opposition, including some threats of violent resistance, the breakaway Transnistria republic, fearful it will be next, is mulling a response, and Moscow is exploiting the situation to try to

Executive Summary:  The Myanmar military’s (Tatmadaw) decision to revive the Pyusawhti militia to counter pro-democracy resistance forces following the 2021 military coup has remained an understudied aspect of Myanmar’s civil war, as the overstretched military relies on these locally armed groups in Bamar-dominated regions. These armed militias function as vigilantes and intelligence gatherers, deliberately using tactics such as arson, extortion, forced conscription, and targeted kil

Executive Summary: In February, India introduced its first comprehensive counter-terrorism policy doctrine, the National Counter-Terrorism Policy and Strategy, titled ‘PRAHAAR.’ The doctrine marks the culmination of a decade-long shift from reactive counterterrorism to preventive disruption. The strategy addresses new technological challenges, including encrypted communications, drone logistics, cryptocurrency funding, and the potential misuse of digital or biological materials. Despit

Executive Summary: The West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) and Indonesian security forces remain embroiled in a conflict with no clear solution. The TPNPB insurgency is escalating by targeting civilian aircraft, foreigners, and the Grasberg mine—all targets the group views as complicit in Jakarta’s exploitation of West Papua. In response to the insurgency, Indonesia has deployed over 100,000 security personnel to Papua against roughly 1,400 TPNPB insurgents. This extreme milita

Executive Summary: Remnants of the Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) remain active in Peru’s Valle de los Ríos Apurímac, Ene y Mantaro (VRAEM) zone, but the group now operates mainly as a narcoterrorist cartel rather than a nationwide ideological insurgency. The group has proven difficult to fully eradicate despite leadership losses and military setbacks, including the killing of a VRAEM Central Committee member in late March. March counterterrorism operations were a feature of national

Executive Summary: New additions to the Politburo Standing Committee, Central Committee, and Central Military Commission at the 21st Party Congress in 2027 are expected to follow General Secretary Xi Jinping’s agenda, and decisions for promotions will follow cadres’ proven ability to do so rather than any novel ideas they may hold. Although Xi will almost certainly stay in power, the Politburo Standing Committee will likely observe the “seven up, eight down” norm, under which members to r

Executive Summary: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) expects trusted overseas Chinese leaders to internalize broad political guidance and act proactively rather than waiting for direct instructions. Overseas Chinese association leaders are encouraged to embed themselves in host-country political, business, and social networks while remaining oriented toward the Party’s agenda. Their local standing can provide Beijing with access, credibility, relationships, and channels for promoting its

Executive Summary: A June exercise conducted by Southern Theater Command minesweepers and drones shows how the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) would use both unmanned and manned vessels in Mine Countermeasures (MCM) operations. The PLAN views the use of drones such as Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) and Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) as a force multiplier that would enhance their three-dimensional MCM system. The integration of drones into MCM operations is part of the PLAN’

Executive Summary: Lithuania faces sustained Russian hybrid pressure that blends cyber, informational, economic, and kinetic tactics. This alters peacetime assumptions and makes resilience, infrastructure protection, and rapid decision-making core defense priorities. The Nordic-Baltic region is becoming a central arena of European security regardless of the war’s outcome, making stronger regional cooperation, sustained support for Ukraine, military readiness, and faster institutional adap

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) enforces many product rules domestically without extending them to goods that leave the country. These cases span distinct ministerial jurisdictions, encompassing fentanyl precursors, flavored e-cigarettes, toxic children’s products, and large language models (LLMs). These trades share a similar factual structure. After judging a product as inherently harmful, unsafe above a specific threshold, or useful to the Party-state while detr

Executive Summary: Beijing is converging on a “tiered governance” approach to open weight models, under which basic capabilities would be released freely, frontier capabilities would face security review, and the most sensitive models would be confined to only domestic use. Support for open weights is a deliberate response to constraints. It offsets a compute deficit that leaves the People’s Republic of China (PRC) roughly two years behind the United States according to leading Chinese AI

Executive Summary: The 2026 World AI Conference (WAIC), which featured remarks from Xi Jinping, highlighted the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) pitch for global artificial intelligence (AI) governance and cooperation. Since its launch in 2018, the WAIC has evolved with the PRC’s AI ambitions. Launched soon after the release of the country’s first AI development plan in 2017, it has reflected policies contained in Shanghai’s AI action plan for 2019–2021 and national-level global governa

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia are entering a new phase of institutionalized interdependence, built through unprecedented systemic coordination and guided by Beijing’s ambition to transform the geopolitical foundations of global order. The latest summit and surrounding activity show this agenda being embedded across economic, political, scientific, informational, security, and military domains, with energy, trade, and defense cooperation operating as compo

In the People’s Republic of China (PRC), cultural security is one element among 20 that constitute comprehensive national security. Advancing cultural security is therefore critical to ensuring Party and state security. The Ethnic Unity Law is the Party-state’s latest attempt to codify and internationalize “cultural security” as a critical component of the primacy of regime security. While the Ethnic Unity Law is the most recent example, other laws that relate to cultural security, such as

Executive Summary: Reconstituted Russian forces may next attack Estonia if its war against Ukraine subsides into a stalemate.Estonia’s proximity to Russia, large Russian-speaking minority, and limited conventional military capabilities make it a potential target for future Russian military aggression.  Seizure of the Russian-speaking majority area in and around Narva using unmarked forces and fabricated separatism or a larger offensive through Lithuania to link Russia’s Kal