Jamestown Foundation

Executive Summary: A new action plan for the Internet of Things (IoT) increases the possibility that Chinese-built connected infrastructure in the United States could become a platform for data access, cyber pre-positioning, and attacks on U.S. cyber-physical systems in a prolonged crisis or confrontation. The plan, launched jointly by nine ministries, defines IoT as a total cyber-physical environment that links “people, machines, and things” across sensing, networks, platforms, applicati

Executive Summary: Procurement records suggest that U.S. export controls on frontier artificial intelligence (AI) chips imposed meaningful constraints until January 2026, as institutions in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) appeared to be adapting procurement practices to preserve access rather than replacing foreign hardware with domestic alternatives. Tender documents from universities and state-linked entities show repeated efforts to obtain Nvidia H200-class computing power. Some

Executive Summary Belarus is positioning itself as a nuclear energy mentor to Uzbekistan. Uzbek delegates recently visited the Belarusian nuclear power plant to learn about workforce training systems, regulatory coordination, emergency preparedness, and the development of supporting social infrastructure associated with operating Russian‑designed reactors.  Belarus’s opportunities to share its nuclear experience lie with countries that are partnered with Russia’s state-owned nuclear corpo

Executive Summary: The Outline of its 15th Five-Year Plan contains new development priorities for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) through 2030, as well as a high degree of continuity with directives from previous plans. This iteration adds a section on military governance, in addition to the recurring focus on combat capability and military–civil fusion, and emphasizes military theory, military governance, and “spin-on” mechanisms for facilitating the integration of civilia

Executive Summary: In March, a senior North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military delegation led by Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation Admiral Pierre Vandier visited Kyiv, highlighting a new phase of military cooperation between Ukraine and the alliance. Ukraine is gaining the status of a military innovator as Kyiv heads its own military training, increases success on the frontlines, expands medium and long-range missile attacks against Russia, targets Russian energy infra

Executive Summary: Central Asian countries lack sufficient water for spring planting of food crops this year, setting the stage for population flight and even military conflict among themselves and with their neighbors, whose causes and consequences lie far beyond the region. Global warming and rapid population growth are the main culprits. Decaying infrastructure, Afghanistan’s diversion of water for its own population’s use, and the disruption of supply chains due to the conflict in Ira

Executive Summary: The Iran war has exposed a widening gap between Beijing’s claims of military-technological superiority and the apparent battlefield performance of air defense and counter-drone warfare systems linked to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). PRC state media has amplified Iranian disinformation and shifted attention to supposed U.S. strategic weaknesses, rather than confront failures in Iran’s air-defense response to U.S. and Israeli strikes. The unexplained removal of

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has gone from a single pilot production line to a string of headline breakthroughs in photonics technology since 2024. Beijing has framed progress by researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Tsinghua University, Fudan University, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) as a way around U.S. chip sanctions. Photonic chips, which move information using light rather than electricity, are faster, run cooler, and—crucially for Beiji

Executive Summary: In March, four Georgian banks, including Cartu Bank, gained direct membership in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, which facilitates renminbi (RMB) clearing and settlement under the supervision of the People’s Bank of China. Across the South Caucasus, the PRC is broadening its economic influence, though Armenia remains less integrated. The PRC’s internationalization of the RMB aims to reduce international reliance on the U.S

Executive Summary: Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Budapest on March 21, emphasizing Georgian Dream’s goal of defending traditional values in alliance with conservative and traditionalist forces in Europe and the United States. Georgian Dream considers Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party to be a main ally in fighting against liberals and “Brussels bureaucracy.” Hungary is blocking EU attempts to imp

Executive Summary: The Ninth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in February heralded the start of a new geopolitical era in Northeast Asia. North Korea’s nuclear program is now codified in party doctrine, insulated from negotiation, and institutionally designed to outlast any diplomatic framework Washington might devise. The congress formally institutionalized Kim Jong Un’s drive to build nuclear and conventional forces in parallel, stipulating pre-emptive strike capabilities in part

Executive Summary: Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election is shaping up to be its most competitive since 2010, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz–Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) alliance facing a serious challenge from Péter Magyar’s pro-EU Tisza party, and polls suggesting a potential incumbent defeat. Orbán is relying on anti-Ukrainian narratives and manufactured security threats to mobilize voters, but this strategy may falter as public fear of being drag

Executive Summary: The death of Georgian Catholicos-Patriarch Ilia II—whose funeral drew massive crowds of mourners to the streets of Tbilisi—has triggered a succession contest in which factions inside and outside the country are competing to install a favorable candidate. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service issued an unusually direct statement on March 31, accusing Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of attempting to destabilize the Georgian Orthodox Church, signaling the Kremlin’s inte

Executive Summary: As Russian anger about President Vladimir Putin’s moves against the internet grows, Russian commentators are pointing to other mistakes the Kremlin leader has been making and to polls showing his approval rating is falling, suggesting he faces “a perfect storm.” There are growing signs that opposition to Putin’s policies is spreading within Russian elites, increasing the likelihood that they will coalesce into groups that will seek and perhaps even succeed in blocking K

Executive Summary: Semiconductor packaging giant Tongfu Microelectronics holds a permanent, royalty-free license to intellectual property from U.S. fabless manufacturer AMD. This license was granted in 2016 with PRC state backing from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund. U.S. export controls on semiconductor packaging, introduced in 2025, cannot reach technology permanently transferred by contract nine years earlier. The license permits the use of AMD’s technology

Executive Summary: Moscow is utilizing the Cossack image and organizations to suppress Ukrainian identity in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russian bodies like Russia’s Federal Nationalities Ministry (FADN) portray Cossacks in the occupied territories as a loyal military-social class aligned with Russian narratives. Cossack organizations in the occupied territories of Ukraine are becoming a significant part of Kremlin-managed civ

Executive Summary: Russia is struggling to influence emerging alignments amid U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and the rapidly evolving Middle Eastern security dynamics. Moscow is sidelined from key diplomatic initiatives despite seeking relevance in the shifting Great Gulf Game. Moscow’s prolonged war against Ukraine has weakened its global standing amid military setbacks, economic strain, and internal tensions. Russia has limited its capacity to project power or effectively engage in parall

Executive Summary: The ordering of chapters in the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan provides clues to Beijing’s shifting priorities. For the first time in the Xi era, the chapter on the country’s industrial system and the real economy appears above the one on innovation-driven development. This could indicate that the leadership sees industrial strength as a more immediate concern than technological progress, or that it is seeking to rebalance after a decade of prioritizing technologica

Executive Summary: The March 12 verdict delivered by Moscow’s Second Western District Military Court in the case of the 2024 Crocus City Hall attack reinforces that the attack was carried out by ISKP-linked Tajik militants, underscoring the expanding operational reach of the group’s Central Asian networks. The ruling also weakens earlier politically charged claims advanced by the Kremlin and the Federal Security Service (FSB), which sought to attribute the attack to Ukraine as well as to

Executive Summary: Lone-actor terrorists and small cells—including Islamic State (IS) affiliates and right-wing extremists—are increasingly attempting to use commercial drones for remote surveillance, weapons transport, and attacks. The threat is worsened by the easy procurement of drones, commercial 3D printers, and detailed online instructional manuals distributed by terrorist groups that lower the technical barriers to weaponization. Although commercial drones have limited payload c