Jamestown Foundation

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone campaign is eroding Russia’s strategic depth, bringing Russia’s major cities, industrial centers, and critical energy infrastructure within range and exposing vulnerabilities once protected by geography and distance. Growing attacks inside Russian territory have forced regions and businesses to fund their own air-defense measures, highlighting Moscow’s inability to provide adequate protection and increasing strain on Russia’s domesti

Executive Summary: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Yerevan on May 26, where he signed a strategic partnership charter, a transit corridor framework, and a critical minerals accord. Two days later, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the June 7 parliamentary elections. Rubio’s visit and Washington’s endorsement followed the first EU–Armenia summit on May 4–5. Moscow responded with a range of threats, warnings of a “Ukra

Executive Summary: On May 8, KTZ Express and Pasifik Eurasia organized the transportation of a container train from Izmir in Türkiye to Chengxiang in the PRC via the Middle Corridor, passing through the ports of Baku in Azerbaijan and Aktau in Kazakhstan. Growing coordination among regional states, railway operators, and international financial institutions reflects a broader effort to institutionalize the Middle Corridor through infrastructure modernization, multimodal integration, digit

Executive Summary: Western sanctions are reshaping ownership of some strategic assets in Georgia through pressuring Georgian Dream-aligned businessman Irakli Rukhadze, the fourth-richest entrepreneur in Georgia, to divest from some of his key businesses.  On April 16, Liberty Bank, Georgia’s third-largest bank, which Rukhadze owned roughly a third of, was sold to BasisBank, owned by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)-based Hualing Group. In February, Rukhadze sold Tbilisi’s main state-a

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin will claim any outcome he gets in Ukraine is a victory. He is not going to achieve his stated goals, and the Kremlin is trying to figure out how to present something less than a triumph as exactly that.  The Kremlin allowed an article to appear on May 24 in a major Moscow newspaper suggesting that military triumphs are overrated and that Russia has often benefited when it has suffered what others have described as a defeat. This propo

Executive Summary: Top contract manufacturing firms may further the techno-industrial dominance of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). These firms have been important vectors of technology transfer and industrial upgrading for over three decades. Now pivoting to Beijing’s priority sectors, they risk cementing its dominance in key future technologies. Beijing’s industrial ecosystem pressures firms to channel dual-use technologies into supporting its military. As this ecosystem develops,

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have been advancing their bilateral relations. Uzbekistan’s Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Bahrom Ashrafkhanov, told reporters on June 1 that Tashkent and Baku’s relationship is experiencing unprecedented development. Economic and diplomatic cooperation in areas such as transit, energy—including oil and gas production and green energy trade—and Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the C6 format strengthen the ties between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. For Baku

Executive Summary: Moscow is stepping up mobilization pressure in occupied Ukraine to compensate for manpower losses in the war against Ukraine. Since April, Russian authorities in Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts have widely canceled mobilization deferrals for full-time students. Russian occupation authorities are using forced passportization, mandatory military registration, raids, and threats of legal punishment to force Ukrainian males of mobilization age into the Russia

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on May 29 warned that there would soon be a new Russian large-scale missile/drone strike on Kyiv amid Russia’s intensified nuclear brinkmanship. Moscow’s recent nuclear brinkmanship includes missile tests, military exercises, and another Oreshnik strike near Kyiv. Rather than intimidating European countries, these actions appear to be accelerating regional cooperation on air defense, counter-drone capabilities, and broader nuclear

Executive Summary: A $25 billion special defense budget passed Taiwan’s legislature, ensuring funds for U.S. arms purchases but cutting most funding for domestic defense programs, including drones, presented in the government’s original $40 billion proposal. The cuts were instigated by Kuomintang (KMT) chairwoman Cheng Li-wun and represent a political victory for her faction of the main opposition party, which supports lower defense spending and friendlier ties between Taiwan and the Peop

Executive Summary: On May 22, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) ordered local governments to provide basic public services by place of residence, not hukou (户口). The document reallocates fiscal burdens rather than expanding welfare. Across social insurance, medical insurance, and education, the reform equalizes access but not benefits. The roughly 17:1 pension gap, the reimbursement rate gap, and the hukou ties to college entrance exam eligibility remain untouched.

Executive Summary: Chinese universities only began teaching area studies as a distinct discipline in 2022, as a latent response to a perceived lack of personnel equipped to capably represent the state’s interests across One Belt One Road partner countries. The discipline’s overhaul is part of a wider push to reduce the hold of Western theory within academia and put forth an “autonomous knowledge system” under the guidance of the Chinese Communist Party. The buildout of area studies progra

Executive Summary:  Many Ukrainian families have fled the occupied territories of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, fearing child deportations, forced conscription, and the hardships of life under Russian rule, often leaving homes, farms, and businesses behind that the occupation authorities then seize. For some Ukrainians, fleeing with nothing was the only way to save their children; for others, leaving a family member behind seemed the only way to protect what they owned. In D

Executive Summary: Russia and the de facto government of Georgia’s occupied Tskhinvali Region (South Ossetia) signed the Treaty on Deepening Allied Cooperation on May 9, essentially allowing Moscow gain more control of the region and use it as a tool of pressure on Tbilisi. Moscow is toughening its policy toward Georgia amid major changes in the South Caucasus, the drift of Armenia and Azerbaijan toward the West, and its ongoing war against Ukraine. This step demonstrates the futility

Executive Summary: Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party announced the creation of a special division to monitor public communication and prosecute hate speech on May 18, adding to fears that the government is institutionalizing censorship and expanding control over dissent and online criticism. Critics, including human rights groups and even clergy members, warn that new laws criminalizing insults against officials enable arbitrary enforcement against journalists, activists, and oppositi

Executive Summary: Since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his expanded war against Ukraine, the Kremlin leader has dramatically expanded the number and role of political commissars in the military, figures who watch over the attitudes and actions of both officers and enlisted men. This revival of a Soviet-era practice suggests that the Kremlin leader is worried about the loyalty of his military commanders and troops and sees such a system as the best way to ensure the army does not

Executive Summary: Russia’s setbacks in economic, military, and foreign policies are undermining confidence in its eventual victory, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to intensify nuclear brinkmanship as his primary remaining instrument for coercion and strategic leverage. Recent Russian nuclear demonstrations are likely aimed at intimidating the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Ukraine but have failed to generate significant Western reactions. Putin’s escalating

Executive Summary: Türkiye announced that preparations for official bilateral trade with Armenia were completed on May 11. Goods no longer need to be reregistered in a third country before reaching their final destination when moving between the two countries.  Armenia and Türkiye are slowly advancing their normalization, and initiating official bilateral trade is a major milestone. Friendlier economic relations, especially in trade and transit, are an important part of this process. 

Zahkung Ting Ying led the now-disbanded Myanmar government-sponsored militia, the Kachin Border Guard Force (BGF). Formerly known as the New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDA-K), Ying’s militias controlled a semi-autonomous, resource-rich region in the Christian-dominated Kachin State, bordering the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Yunnan province. Ying was notable for developing illegal business ventures spanning from drug production to rare-earth mining (Frontier Myanmar, August 1, 2025).  Poppy

Executive Summary: The Russian Duma passed a law giving the Kremlin the right to deploy military force abroad to “defend the rights of citizens of Russia” if they are arrested or charged, including by international courts in whose operation Russia does not participate. This measure is designed to intimidate other countries and international courts and cause them to avoid charging Russians, including possibly Russian President Vladimir Putin, lest such moves lead Moscow to use force to res