Calculated Risk

I've been thinking about this for some time.After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I've decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog.However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I'll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each week (via a newsletter - see below). This will have three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic. And I'll be writing the Real Estat

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 16 and DOW futures are down 104 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $59.37 per barrel and Brent at $63.60 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices.

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025.   It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January.  From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 JanuaryThe U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 January. ... 28 December 2025 through 3 January 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024 and 2025): • Occupancy: 50.5% (+4.4%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$175.47 (+3.4%) • Revenue per ava

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October • The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December • Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year • Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. ----- Monday, January 12th ----- No major economic releases scheduled. ----- Tuesday, January 13th ----- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Ind

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. ... Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United State

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.3 trillion. ... Household debt increased 4.1 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, while

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for September and October today, but we are still missing November data. ... The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red). Total starts were down 7.8% in October compared to October 2024. Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 0.7%

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.Earlier: December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment RatePrime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population

From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET,: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%. • At 10:00 AM: Housing Starts for September and October. • At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January) • At 12:00 PM: Q3 Fl

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We forecast that payrolls rose 70k (vs. 55k consensus) in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% (vs. 4.5% consensus). ... We expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 4.5% because the increase to 4.6% in November

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 TrendsThe Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to December 2024. The December index is up 0.1% month over month. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions. The Manheim ind

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in October, down $18.8 billion from $48.1 billion in September, revised. October exports were $302.0 billion, $7.8 billion more than September exports. October imports were $331.4 billion, $11.0 billion less than September imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Exports increased an

The DOL reported: In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 27, 2024 when it was 210,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 218,

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 A ET, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 205K, up from 199K.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995. It will be close! Even if sales beat 2024 sales, these will be the two lowest sales years since 1995. Sales will be worse than any year during the housing bust. Most readers probably don’t remember 1995, but I do! If I went to an open house ‘95, I was frequently the only person to visit all

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI® ReportEconomic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and