Confidence Slips (Way) Below Consensus
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Conference Board index registers 81.9 vs consensus 89.2 (and previous 88.6). It’s currently three standard deviations below mean.
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: U.Michigan, Gallup, Conference Board, Cummings and Tedeschi (202
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, using Cummings Tedeschi adjustment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: U.Michigan, Gallup, Conference Board, Cummings and Tedeschi (202
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