El Niño rundown: from first warnings to a 451,000-death projection
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El Niño has gone from an early-warning forecast to a genuinely global story, with new research now projecting it could contribute to as many as 451,000 deaths worldwide.
Here’s how we got here, and what it means closer to home.
HOW THIS EL NIÑO ACTUALLY DEVELOPED
A weak La Niña event evolved to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026.
By May 2026, Columbia University’s Climate School reported the pattern was “rapidly transitioning” to El Niño.
NOAA’s
Here’s how we got here, and what it means closer to home.
HOW THIS EL NIÑO ACTUALLY DEVELOPED
A weak La Niña event evolved to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026.
By May 2026, Columbia University’s Climate School reported the pattern was “rapidly transitioning” to El Niño.
NOAA’s
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