The Cost of Living vs. Hourly Earnings
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Real average hourly earnings:
Figure 1: Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers deflated by headline CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast (blue +), deflated by wage earner and clerical worker CPI (red), both in 2025$. Light green denotes US-Iran war. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: CPI ex-shelter (blue), AIER Everday Price Index (red), Everyday Price Index predicted using first differences regression on core and and gas pric
Figure 1: Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers deflated by headline CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast (blue +), deflated by wage earner and clerical worker CPI (red), both in 2025$. Light green denotes US-Iran war. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: CPI ex-shelter (blue), AIER Everday Price Index (red), Everyday Price Index predicted using first differences regression on core and and gas pric
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