Sentiment Declines as Inflation Expectations Rise
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From U.Michigan, preliminary results for September:
Figure 1: U.Michigan Consumer Sentiment, adjusted using Cummings-Tedeschi correction (blue, left scale), expected 1 year inflation, % (brown, right scale). Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: U.Michigan, Cummings and Tedeschi (2024), author’s calculations.
After incorporating the Cummings-Tedeschi adjustment, the Michigan survey lies between the Conference Board and Gallup measures (standardi
Figure 1: U.Michigan Consumer Sentiment, adjusted using Cummings-Tedeschi correction (blue, left scale), expected 1 year inflation, % (brown, right scale). Red dashed line at “Liberation Day”, purple dashed line at US-Iran war. Source: U.Michigan, Cummings and Tedeschi (2024), author’s calculations.
After incorporating the Cummings-Tedeschi adjustment, the Michigan survey lies between the Conference Board and Gallup measures (standardi
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