🌐 Global Economy 1d ago · Alex Tabarrok

The Kalshi Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF)

Marginal Revolution
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The Kalshi Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF)
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Kalshi Research is doing interesting work on the fundamentals of prediction markets and also on how data from prediction markets can be used to improve other forecasts. Economists at the Fed, for example, recently wrote Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets finding:
Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market

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