🌿 Environment Aug 31, 2026 · Zeke Hausfather

Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change

Carbon Brief
Climate science and policy
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Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change
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Every six to seven years, climate modelling groups around the world run a coordinated set of simulations that explore how the climate could change in the future. 



These simulations form a key line of evidence for future projections used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. 



They are built around a set of common scenarios – or “pathways” – of future greenhouse gas emissions.



A new set of scenar

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