Starting a War Is a Bad Bet
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I understand that President Trump is not averse to making an occasional wager, and I am assuming that when he does so, he considers the odds. I would have liked to have had a chance to brief him on the results of a study I did a number of years ago before the Iran War started. At the time, I was teaching a class on military theory, and I did an analysis of the success rate of the states that started conventional wars of the 20th Century. I’d like to think that the results would have sobere
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