🧩 Philosophy Aug 31, 2026 · Robin Hanson

Aliens Are Not Crazy Unlikely

Overcoming Bias
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Aliens Are Not Crazy Unlikely
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Astrobiologists have, for decades, defaulted to a conservative burden of proof that leans into two aphorisms coined by Sagan … life … should be considered a “hypothesis of last resort,” largely because “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” But what if Sagan had it all wrong? If we live in a universe where life is common and not extraordinary at all, setting such an extraordinarily high bar for its discovery beyond Earth can backfire. … &

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