Physics-based simulations could improve earthquake-damage predictions, why aren’t they being used?
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Earthquake ground-motion predictions rely on statistical models built on historical records. This means that ground-motion measurements taken during previous earthquakes are used to predict the effects of future earthquakes. However, historical data can be sparse in some locations and if a region has not experienced a severe earthquake in the modern era, there will be no data for high-magnitude events. As a result, seismologists are keen on using physics-based simulations to predict ground motio
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