🌐 Global Economy Aug 15, 2026 · Menzie Chinn

Does Slowing AI-Related Imports Mean Slowing Investment?

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Does Slowing AI-Related Imports Mean Slowing Investment?
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Maybe:


Figure 1: Imports of computers, computer accessories and semiconductors (blue, left log scale), and investment in informationn equipment and software (red, right log scale), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, 2026Q2 advance release, and author’s calculations.
Over this period, one can reject at the 6% level the null hypothesis that the growth rate of imports doesn’t Granger cause the growth rate of investment, but not the reverse. Interestingly, once lagged imports do no

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