Are We Safer than We Were 6 Months Ago?
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The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no deal apparent, and we are moving the George Washington CSG away from the Pacific.
Source: USNI, accessed 8/17/2026.
So much for the pivot to the Pacific.
The betting odds for reopening the Strait of Hormuz by year’s end is only 33%; it’s 8% for October’s beginning.
Source: Kalshi, accessed 8/17/2026, noon CT.
At the same time, Brent October futures remain elevated near $90, while gasoline futures near all-time levels in June.
Source:
Source: USNI, accessed 8/17/2026.
So much for the pivot to the Pacific.
The betting odds for reopening the Strait of Hormuz by year’s end is only 33%; it’s 8% for October’s beginning.
Source: Kalshi, accessed 8/17/2026, noon CT.
At the same time, Brent October futures remain elevated near $90, while gasoline futures near all-time levels in June.
Source:
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