🧩 Philosophy Aug 5, 2026 · Robin Hanson

How To Be A Usually-Right Contrarian

Overcoming Bias
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How To Be A Usually-Right Contrarian
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We rightly celebrate rebels who were initially contrarian on key claims, but then got the world to later agree with them. Many seek to achieve this status by backing various contrarian claims. Of course, as the usual consensus beliefs tend to be correct, this is risky, usually ending in failure.However I have stumbled upon a way to be both contrarian, and also usually right. It is based on this:Humanity’s beliefs on many important topics have long been just inconsistent and incoherent acro

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