Don’t Depend on the Foreign Official Sector to Keep on Financing the US CA Deficit
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If previous trends hold:
Figure 1: Total Federal debt held by public (black line), held by Fed (yellow bar), held by foreign official sector (green bar), held by foreign non-official (red bar), held by rest (blue bar), all in bn.$. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury via FRED, TIC for 2026Q1 foreign holdings, and NBER.
Note the green bars over time. Normalized by GDP:
Figure 2: Total Federal debt held by public (black line), held by Fed (yellow bar), held
Figure 1: Total Federal debt held by public (black line), held by Fed (yellow bar), held by foreign official sector (green bar), held by foreign non-official (red bar), held by rest (blue bar), all in bn.$. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury via FRED, TIC for 2026Q1 foreign holdings, and NBER.
Note the green bars over time. Normalized by GDP:
Figure 2: Total Federal debt held by public (black line), held by Fed (yellow bar), held
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