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According to Cleveland Fed nowcasts today:
Figure 1: CPI (blue), core CPI (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. July is July 23 m/m nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
These nowcasts incorporate EIA’s gasoline price data through 7/22, as well as oil prices.
In terms of the Fed’s preferred measure:
Figure 2: PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. June and July are July 23 y/y nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author&#
Figure 1: CPI (blue), core CPI (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. July is July 23 m/m nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author’s calculations.
These nowcasts incorporate EIA’s gasoline price data through 7/22, as well as oil prices.
In terms of the Fed’s preferred measure:
Figure 2: PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (red), both in logs 2025M01=0. June and July are July 23 y/y nowcast. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and author&#
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