When travel restrictions became trade frictions: evidence from Covid-era border closures
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John Lewis
Covid travel restrictions limited movement of people but also made cross-border goods trade more difficult. Did this contribute to the fall in global goods trade during the pandemic, and if so by how much? In a recent paper using a structural gravity model on global trade flows with domestic trade, I show that a full closure reduced trade for a typical country pair by around 19%, implying a peak hit to global trade of about 23% in 2020 Q2. Hits were larger for nearby partners,
Covid travel restrictions limited movement of people but also made cross-border goods trade more difficult. Did this contribute to the fall in global goods trade during the pandemic, and if so by how much? In a recent paper using a structural gravity model on global trade flows with domestic trade, I show that a full closure reduced trade for a typical country pair by around 19%, implying a peak hit to global trade of about 23% in 2020 Q2. Hits were larger for nearby partners,
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