🧩 Philosophy May 25, 2026 · Robin Hanson

Toward-Forager Predictions

Overcoming Bias
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Toward-Forager Predictions
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In my last post I reported:For the last century, … averaging over [3] LLMs, 89% of culture trends that can be classified are toward-forager.And 81% of such trends can be so classified. For the prior two centuries this explanatory power was weaker (59%,65%), but still substantial. This suggests a way to predict the next century: predict toward forager trend changes.So I collected 22 future trends that would plausibly be predicted by a continuing toward-forager-style trend. I then set aside

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