🌐 Global Economy May 14, 2026 · Menzie Chinn

Guest Contribution: “Can Professional Forecasters See Productivity Revolutions Coming?”

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Guest Contribution: “Can Professional Forecasters See Productivity Revolutions Coming?”
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Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee). 


Lessons from three decades of long-run forecasts, and what they mean for the AI productivity debate.
Artificial intelligence is expected to reshape the economy, but how much and how fast? Professional forecasters offer one useful benchmark because they are forced to translate broad narratives about technology into specific, quantitative predictions about growth, interest rates, and

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