🌐 Global Economy May 16, 2026 · Menzie Chinn

Nowcasts of GDP Diverge

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Nowcasts of GDP Diverge
Source ↗ 👁 2 💬 0
For Q2, GDPNow (q/q AR) is at 4%, while St Louis Fed is at 0.8%.


Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow (light blue square), NY Fed of 5/15 (pink circle), Goldman Sachs of 5/15 (teal inverted triangle), St.Louis Fed news of 5/15 (orange *), May Survey of Professional Forecasters (tan), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray). Sources: BEA 2026Q1 advance, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs, St. Louis Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
Due to trade shocks, it makes sense to also view pr

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