When Governments Trade on Secrets
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A lot is being made in the media about insider trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, with much of the focus centered on the way government officials have capitalized on classified information. The recent wave of scandals has prompted calls for bans on state and federal officials from engaging in certain types of trading and the markets have responded with intense lobbying efforts. One trader made $553,000 on a bet about Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death hours before Israeli bomb
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