AI safety can be a Pascal's mugging even if p(doom) is high
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People sometimes say that AI safety is a Pascal’s mugging. Other people sometimes reply that AI safety can’t be a Pascal’s mugging, because p(doom) is high. Both these people are wrong.The second group of people are wrong because Pascal’s muggings are about the probability that you make a difference, not about baseline risk. The first group of people are wrong because the probability that you personally avert AI catastrophe isn’t that small.Here’s a story to show that Pascal’s muggings are about
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