🌿 Environment Apr 21, 2026 · Zeke Hausfather

State of the climate: Strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year

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State of the climate: Strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year
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The first three months of 2026 have been the fourth warmest on record, with each successive month surpassing historical averages by a greater margin.



While weak La Niña conditions pushed down temperatures at the start of the year, scientists expect the development of a strong – and potentially “super” – El Niño event by early autumn. 



El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that sh

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