Contra Leicht on AI Pauses
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This is going to be a nerdier article than usual. It’s a response to Anton Leicht’s blog post “Press Play To Continue”. I disagree with much of it and think it’s not very well argued.Going section-by-section, Leicht’s claims are:AI is going pretty damn well all things considered. The argument has two parts:It implicitly models pausing AI as resampling from a fixed distribution of possible AI development timelines.It argues the current situation is better than average, so resampling is a bad i
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