🌐 Global Economy 1d ago · Menzie Chinn

Trump Credibility Measured

Econbrowser
View Channel →
Trump Credibility Measured
Source ↗ 👁 0 💬 0
From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:


 
Kalshi betting odds on number of ships through Strait of Hormuz through April 5:

Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/5/2026, 11:30 AM CT. Notes: Orange arrow at 4 AM CT, 5 AM ET.
There is no indication that prediction markets took the threat seriously, and indeed the expected number of ships transiting the Strait declined.
 

Comments (0)

Sign in to join the discussion

More Like This

Donald Trump’s big wealth tax
Real-World Economics Review Blog · 6h ago
📰
Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
Marginal REVOLUTION · 18h ago
📰
Does this have implications for higher ed in particular?
Marginal REVOLUTION · 20h ago
📰
FTAV’s further reading
Alphaville · 20h ago
📰
Auden on Iceland
Marginal REVOLUTION · 1d ago
📰
Good sentences
Marginal REVOLUTION · 1d ago