Trump Credibility Measured
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From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:
Kalshi betting odds on number of ships through Strait of Hormuz through April 5:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/5/2026, 11:30 AM CT. Notes: Orange arrow at 4 AM CT, 5 AM ET.
There is no indication that prediction markets took the threat seriously, and indeed the expected number of ships transiting the Strait declined.
Kalshi betting odds on number of ships through Strait of Hormuz through April 5:
Source: Kalshi, accessed 4/5/2026, 11:30 AM CT. Notes: Orange arrow at 4 AM CT, 5 AM ET.
There is no indication that prediction markets took the threat seriously, and indeed the expected number of ships transiting the Strait declined.
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